The NCAA women’s tourney dilemma
It has taken me a while to sort out my thoughts about the state of the NCAA tournament after I returned from the women’s mock bracket exercise in Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago.
The women’s basketball staff and several committee members in attendance were very organized, thoughtful and diligent in explaining how they do what they do, trying to demystify to a panel of journalists and coaches what happens when they meet behind closed doors in mid-March.
In my first draft, I remarked at how difficult the process is to put together a fair and equitable bracket, given the hosting issues in the first and second rounds, as well as other peculiarities of the women’s draw. I don’t envy the job the NCAA women’s basketball committee has in rounding out this year’s field of 64. Some power conferences aren’t as strong as in years past and some ambitious mid-major programs haven’t been able to take advantage.
Yet I came away with the impression that for all of the time, data and effort that goes into the tournament selection process, this is the least vexing issue facing Division I women’s basketball. While I appreciate the NCAA’s invitation to look under the hood, gauging where this vehicle is headed after leaving the committee assembly line is a much harder proposition.
NCAA Division I women’s vice president Sue Donohoe says that maintaining the integrity of the bracket — seeding all 64 teams nationally along the S-curve line — can be achieved while boosting grassroots fan support up to the Final Four level.
But the attendance figures don’t suggest this, and they haven’t suggested this, since the women’s tourney went to predetermined first- and second-round sites for the 2003 NCAA tourney. The average attendance at first- and second-round sites peaked at 6,697 in 2004, but those numbers had been cresting for several years. They dropped to 3,770 in 2006, the lowest since 1991, before there was a 64-team tournament.
Before that, the top 16 seeds were subregional hosts, and although that was a decidedly unfair advantage, you could bank on a fairly decent draw.
That’s not at all the case now. For example, in the second round of last year’s tournament, the eight lowest crowds were all in venues where a home team wasn’t playing. While more than 10,000 Maryland fans watched the Terrapins advance to the Sweet 16 out of College Park, a mere 686 souls took in the Virginia-California contest in Los Angeles.
I won’t fully rehash the history of how previous committees desired this change, which was prompted in part to create some parity, but also because there was the belief that this sport needed to be showcased in a more national way. When I first discussed the possibility with then-committee chairwoman Bernadette McGlade in 1998, she was adamant that major steps had to be taken. Then I posed to her a question that persists today:
“And who’s going to go watch the games if the home team isn’t there?”
What I did find interesting while researching this topic is that the NCAA wasn’t ready to move on the predetermined sites until it was certain that there would be funding for it.
Indeed, various NCAA committees delayed implementing the predetermined format for five years, citing budgetary reasons, until extending its contract with ESPN to show all 63 women’s tournament games, starting in 2003. That network’s desire for more advanced logistical planning is understandable, and it probably cemented the predetermined fate. It’s a change that the NCAA and women’s basketball is stuck with, for better or for worse.
From 2005 to 2008, the women’s tourney went to an eight-subregional format, which the men have had for years, but in some cases that made attendance even worse. Too many teams were playing too far away from home. Now we’re back where we were in 2003, and there aren’t any easy answers about improving the situation.
When there’s an “open” subregional, or one without a home team, the committee is under no compunction to place a nearby team there, if doing so undermines its bracketing principles. It won’t move a team up or down more than one “true seed” line (i.e., a No. 7 seed could be a 6 or an 8, but not a 5 or a 9), And it won’t displace several teams just to create something of a local draw. For the moment I’m seeing seven of the 16 sites not having the host school making this year’s tournament, so how empty might these arenas be? It likely depends on having a team playing there that’s relatively close by, or will bring a lot of fans.
Some critics believe the NCAA has sold out any reasonable hope of getting good crowds for the sake of television ratings and its lucrative association with ESPN. While I disagree with those who assert the ESPN deal has been detrimental to women’s basketball, I wonder what NCAA staff and committee members think when they see a smattering of fans in some venues that prompt very creative work by ESPN camera crews? Is that a good showcase for the sport?
The NCAA has handcuffed itself into accommodating two competing, and nearly impossible, objectives: Staging a truly national tournament with a fan base that is parochial at best. Fans of the game are really fans of their team, whether it’s Connecticut or anyone else.
To be fair, the NCAA is in the second phase of a three-year grant program awarding $750,000 each year to various schools and conferences to boost attendance and market and promote women’s basketball. Started at the behest of the late NCAA executive Myles Brand, this is a positive step that illustrates the NCAA’s concern about building fan support.
Basketball is the only Division I sport for women with a nationally seeded tournament. The women’s volleyball, soccer and softball tourneys have all grown in popularity in the last decade, but not to the point where they’re ready to move teams around en masse. The NCAA doesn’t seed those tournaments nationally for the same financial reasons it held off doing so for basketball until it came into some ample television money. All these sports are rolled up into the same ESPN package, but women’s hoops is the queen of this hop, and both the NCAA and the sports cable giant have been very happy with the arrangement.
But put yourself in the position of the players and coaches who get shipped far from home and ask them if it feels like they’re playing in the NCAA tournament, or just another non-descript regular season game.
It’s unlikely the NCAA and proponents of women’s basketball will admit that they might have jumped the gun about where they thought fan support actually was. While I don’t begrudge the NCAA wanting to try new formats, there’s also a stubborn insistence at work.
I doubt there will ever be any calls to step back and build an authentic grassroots base of support, instead of through television. That can only happen school by school, and it’s a slow, grinding process that will take years and decades to accomplish. Too many schools lack the emotional support to get behind women’s hoops, and there’s nothing that Title IX can do about that.
If you’re promoting the flagship women’s sport, you can’t want to wait for that to happen. You can’t go back to regional seeding, even if it might make perfect sense. It’s the build-it-down-from-the-top mantra that has pervaded women’s sports advocacy, one impatient with gender equity foot-dragging. Except that bringing along fans — ticket-paying customers — requires a bottom-up approach.
The NCAA may just be following the money here, but that doesn’t mean fans will be sure to follow. Because not enough fans have been doing so in the Predetermined Era.
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